David Seiders chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders has released his latest forecast. Here are his major findings:

Growth Domestic Product growth still is in a slowdown phase and recession risks have risen to some degree. The labor market still is performing well but some weakening is likely later in the year…The Federal Reserve continues to fret about core inflation but monetary tightening is not in the cards this year. To the contrary, we now expect a quarter-point cut in the federal funds rate at the conclusion of the August 7th FOMC meeting…A record volume of vacant (unoccupied) housing units is weighing heavily on both single-family and multifamily housing markets, and historical norms suggest an excess of about 1.3 million vacant units on the market…Deterioration of the supply-demand balance in housing markets has downside implications for house prices and has prompted downward revisions to NAHB's forecasts of home sales and housing production for the balance of 2007-2008. However, we're still showing a gradual recovery process beginning around mid-2007. (Translation: too much housing inventory is going to weaken prices)  

Not much to be happy about there except he thinks the end of 2007 is better than today. For more information, contact us.