The attached chart is form our friends at Calculated Risk and summarizes the economic forecasts of Merrill Lynch, Northern Trust, the UCLA Anderson School and a consensus view of some other Wall Street economists. The current quarter is likely the worst we will see. Nearly everyone expects a rebound to one degree or another in the second half of 2009. David Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch, historically a real bear, is the most bullish with his rebound predicated on the tax cuts contained in the stimulus package. 

What does this mean for Maui real estate?  Directly? Not much. But the sentiment change we will see in the second half of the year is likely to be embraced by potential buyers. In the past, this has meant the savviest buyers act before that and move when the selection is greatest.

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